The 2025 Concacaf Gold Cup group stage culminates this Sunday, June 22, with a highly anticipated showdown between Mexico and Costa Rica. Both football powerhouses have already secured their berths in the knockout stage, each boasting two wins from their first two Group A matches. The upcoming clash at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada, set for 10 p.m. ET (7 p.m. PT), will determine which team claims the top spot in the group. Mexico currently holds the advantage in goal differential, meaning a draw would be sufficient for them to clinch Group A.
The stakes for this match are clear: the Group A winner will face the runner-up of Group D in the quarterfinals, while the second-place team will go head-to-head with the Group D winner. This positioning could significantly impact their path through the tournament.
Both teams enter this decisive fixture on strong form. Mexico secured their knockout stage spot with a 2-0 victory over Suriname, highlighted by a second-half brace from defender César Montes, who scored twice within seven minutes. Montes now shares the tournament’s scoring lead with three goals. Prior to that, Mexico defeated the Dominican Republic 3-2. Costa Rica, meanwhile, earned their qualification by coming from behind to beat the Dominican Republic 2-1, thanks to an 85th-minute goal from Josimar Alcocer. They also overcame Suriname in a high-scoring 4-3 encounter. (Source: Syracuse.com)
The historical rivalry between Mexico and Costa Rica adds another layer of intrigue to this match. In 59 previous encounters, Mexico has largely dominated, securing 33 wins compared to Costa Rica’s 7, with 19 matches ending in a draw. This history, coupled with the fact that Costa Rica is coached by former Mexico manager Miguel Herrera, intensifies the pride and honor at stake for both sides. Mexico’s current coach, Javier Aguirre, will be looking to maintain El Tri’s regional supremacy. (Source: Marca US)
For fans in the USA, the match will be broadcast live on FS1 and TUDN (Spanish language). Streaming options include fuboTV, DirecTV, Sling, and Hulu + Live TV, many of which offer free trials. Concurrently, the Dominican Republic and Suriname will play their final, inconsequential Group A match.
From a betting perspective, Mexico is favored at -155 on the 90-minute money line, while Costa Rica is a +450 underdog, and a draw is priced at +290. The over/under for total goals scored is set at 2.5. SportsLine soccer expert Brandt Sutton has offered insights, predicting an ‘Under 2.5 goals’ outcome at +105 odds and a ‘1st half draw’ at +130. Sutton’s rationale for a low-scoring affair stems from both teams having already qualified, potentially reducing the incentive for an all-out attacking approach. He notes that the last six meetings between these teams have seen a combined total of just six goals, averaging one per match. Their most recent encounter in the 2023 Gold Cup quarterfinals also saw only two goals scored. (Source: CBS Sports)
Regarding the first half, Sutton points out that four of the last five contests between Mexico and Costa Rica have resulted in a draw at halftime, with the only exception being a 45th-minute penalty kick. Mexico’s tendency to start slow, with all five of their Gold Cup goals coming in the 44th minute or later, further supports the prediction of an even first half. With Mexico needing only a point to secure the group, a cautious approach is anticipated from El Tri.
As the two top teams in Group A face off, fans can expect a tactical battle with significant implications for the knockout stage, even if the primary objective of qualification has already been achieved.
