Just weeks after the curtain closed on the 2025 Tony Awards, the spotlight is already shifting to the promising lineup for the 2025-2026 Broadway season. Industry experts are offering their initial forecasts for what could dominate the nominations and wins at the 2026 Tony Awards. A recent column from Gold Derby, featuring insights from contributors Sam Eckmann and David Buchanan, delves into the buzziest revivals, new musicals, and star-studded plays set to grace the New York stage.
The upcoming season appears poised for a fierce competition in the musical revival categories. Confirmed productions include beloved classics such as Ragtime, Chess, and The Rocky Horror Show, the latter to be directed by newly minted Tony winner Sam Pinkleton. Adding to the excitement is the strong possibility of Cats: The Jellicle Ball, a reimagining of Andrew Lloyd Webber’s iconic musical set in the world of ballroom. Following a sold-out off-Broadway run, a Broadway transfer for this innovative production is highly anticipated and, if it materializes, could instantly become a frontrunner for Best Musical Revival, setting the stage for an epic showdown.
New musicals are also generating considerable buzz, particularly those under the direction of two-time Tony winner Michael Arden. Arden is set to helm two new tuners: The Queen of Versailles, starring the acclaimed Kristin Chenoweth, and a stage adaptation of The Lost Boys. While The Queen of Versailles, which centers on real-life billionaire Jackie Siegel, is described as a significant creative undertaking, early word suggests it might be a stronger awards vehicle for Chenoweth’s performance and composer Stephen Schwartz’s score rather than for direction. The Lost Boys, a vampire musical, presents a greater unknown given the genre’s challenging track record on Broadway, though a released song and Arden’s creative team offer promising signs.
The race for Best Actress in a Musical is already shaping up to be as competitive as the previous year. Kristin Chenoweth’s portrayal of Jackie Siegel in The Queen of Versailles is being hailed by some as the best of her career, positioning her as a formidable contender. She is expected to face strong competition from Caissie Levy in Ragtime, taking on the two-time Tony-nominated role of Mother, and Lea Michele in Chess, portraying Florence, a role that previously earned a Tony nomination. Both Levy and Michele are Broadway mainstays, with voters potentially eager to recognize their talents in these significant roles.
On the play front, the 2025-2026 season has already begun with Jean Smart’s solo performance in Call Me Izzy. Smart’s devastating portrayal is expected to resonate with voters, making her a strong contender for Lead Actress in a Play. Other notable prospects include the revival of Marjorie Prime, which will seek a new lead actress, and Samuel D. Hunter’s Little Bear Ridge, starring Laurie Metcalf. Should Metcalf reprise her acclaimed role from the Steppenwolf Theatre production, she is considered a near-guaranteed Tony nominee, potentially adding a third trophy to her collection.
The season also promises exciting UK transfers, including a modern, election-night retelling of Oedipus starring Mark Strong and Lesley Manville, and the chilling true-story play Punch. A surprising but intriguing announcement is Stephen Adly Guirgis’s stage adaptation of Dog Day Afternoon, featuring The Bear stars Ebon Moss-Bachrach and Jon Bernthal, which seems ripe for theatrical adaptation.
The Best Actor in a Play category is also brimming with star power. Keanu Reeves and Alex Winter are set to appear in Waiting for Godot, directed by Jamie Lloyd, known for his minimalist yet impactful stagings. Yasmina Reza’s ART will bring a trio of Tony-winning heavyweights to Broadway: Bobby Cannavale, Neil Patrick Harris, and James Corden. Mark Strong’s performance in Oedipus is also highly anticipated, with many rooting for him to secure his first Tony. As the 2025-2026 Broadway season unfolds, it promises a mix of beloved revivals, ambitious new works, and powerhouse performances, ensuring an exciting and unpredictable awards race.
