As the Atlantic hurricane season enters its historically most active period, meteorologists are closely monitoring two tropical systems, one of which is showing a high potential to develop into the season’s first hurricane and could pose a significant threat to the Caribbean and the United States East Coast.
The primary system of concern, designated Invest 97L, is a tropical wave located in the eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Cabo Verde Islands. As of August 10, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has given the system a high chance of development, with some reports citing an 80% to 90% probability of formation within the next seven days. Favorable environmental conditions, including warm ocean waters and low wind shear, are expected to fuel its growth. “This is by far the healthiest looking tropical wave we’ve seen off Africa this summer,” Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza noted in a Substack post.
Forecasters predict a tropical depression is likely to form from this system by the middle of the week as it tracks westward across the Atlantic. Should it continue to strengthen, it would be named Erin and could become the first hurricane of the 2025 season. The average date for the first Atlantic hurricane is August 11, according to AccuWeather.
While development seems likely, the long-term track of the potential storm remains highly uncertain. Computer forecast models, often depicted as “spaghetti models,” show a wide range of possibilities. Some scenarios project the system will curve northward into the open Atlantic, east of Bermuda. Others indicate a path that could bring it toward the Bahamas, the Caribbean, and potentially the U.S. East Coast. “Any development could bring impacts for a large swath from the Caribbean to the United States East Coast,” AccuWeather warned. Fox Weather hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross advised that while it is too early to predict specific impacts, residents along the East Coast and in the Caribbean should monitor the system closely.
A second, less organized tropical wave is also being tracked in the central Atlantic. However, the NHC gives this system a low 20% chance of development over the next seven days due to surrounding dry air. Most models show it moving northward, posing no threat to land.
This uptick in activity aligns with the typical progression of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. The statistical peak of the season occurs on September 10, with the most active period running from mid-August through mid-October. The 2025 season has already produced four named storms, including Tropical Storms Chantal and Dexter. Seasonal outlooks from both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University continue to call for a slightly above-average season.
Meanwhile, the Pacific Ocean has been active with Tropical Storms Henriette and Ivo. Henriette is passing near Hawaii with minimal impact, while swells from a weakening Ivo are creating life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast of Mexico’s Baja California peninsula.
With the Atlantic basin heating up, officials stress the importance of preparedness. NOAA recommends that coastal residents finalize their emergency plans, assemble disaster supply kits, and review their insurance policies. “Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period,” the agency advises.
