After nearly four decades of bloodshed, displacement, and intermittent warfare, Armenia and Azerbaijan are poised to sign a landmark peace agreement, with a ceremony scheduled at the White House on August 8, 2025. This development follows months of negotiations after Azerbaijan’s decisive military offensive in September 2023, which led to its full control over the Nagorno-Karabakh region and the subsequent dissolution of the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh.
The long-standing ethnic and territorial dispute, which has claimed tens of thousands of lives and displaced hundreds of thousands, appears to be nearing a formal conclusion. According to reports, the U.S.-brokered deal includes a joint declaration of peace and a request to dissolve the OSCE Minsk Group, a body co-chaired by France, Russia, and the United States that has mediated the conflict since 1994. A key provision reportedly grants the United States sole development rights over a crucial transit route connecting Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave to mainland Azerbaijan through southern Armenia, a project known as the Zangezur Corridor.
A Conflict Rooted in Soviet History
The origins of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict trace back to the Soviet era. In 1923, Soviet authorities established the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO), a region with a 95% ethnic Armenian population, within the borders of the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. Tensions simmered for decades, erupting in 1988 during the Soviet Union’s decline when the NKAO’s legislature voted to join Armenia.
This move sparked the First Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988-1994), a brutal conflict that resulted in approximately 30,000 casualties and created hundreds of thousands of refugees on both sides. A Russian-brokered ceasefire in 1994, known as the Bishkek Protocol, ended the large-scale fighting. The outcome left ethnic Armenian forces in control of most of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding Azerbaijani districts, establishing the de facto independent Republic of Artsakh, though it remained internationally unrecognized and heavily reliant on Armenia.
From Frozen Conflict to Full-Scale War
For over two decades, the conflict remained largely frozen, punctuated by deadly border clashes in 2008, 2014, and a significant four-day escalation in April 2016. However, the stalemate shattered on September 27, 2020, when Azerbaijan, bolstered by military support from Turkey, launched a full-scale offensive. The 44-day Second Nagorno-Karabakh War was marked by the extensive use of modern drone technology and resulted in a decisive Azerbaijani victory. The war claimed more than 7,000 lives, including soldiers and civilians from both sides.
A subsequent ceasefire, brokered by Russia on November 9, 2020, saw Azerbaijan reclaim all surrounding territories and about a third of Nagorno-Karabakh itself. The agreement also mandated the deployment of nearly 2,000 Russian peacekeepers to secure the remaining Armenian-populated areas and the Lachin corridor, a vital 5km-wide land bridge connecting the region to Armenia.
The Final Chapter and Path to Peace
Despite the 2020 agreement, tensions persisted. A border crisis began in May 2021 with Azerbaijani incursions into Armenian territory. In December 2022, Azerbaijan initiated a blockade of the Lachin corridor under the guise of an environmental protest, leading to a severe humanitarian crisis for the 120,000 ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, who faced shortages of food, medicine, and fuel.
The final phase of the conflict unfolded on September 19, 2023, when Azerbaijan launched a swift, 24-hour military offensive. Facing collapse, the Artsakh authorities agreed to disarm and dissolve their government. This triggered a mass exodus, with over 100,000 ethnic Armenians—nearly the entire population of the region—fleeing to Armenia within a week. On January 1, 2024, the Republic of Artsakh was officially dissolved.
In the months that followed, peace talks gained momentum. A significant step occurred in April 2024 when Armenia agreed to return four border villages it had controlled since the 1990s. While the decision sparked protests in Armenia, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan defended it as a necessary step to avoid another war. The upcoming peace deal aims to resolve remaining issues, including border demarcation based on Soviet-era maps and the establishment of transport links, bringing a formal end to one of the post-Soviet era’s most protracted and tragic conflicts.
