FC Cincinnati heads into a high-stakes, do-or-die battle on Thursday, August 7, as they host LIGA MX powerhouse Chivas de Guadalajara in the final match of the Leagues Cup 2025 group stage. With their tournament life on the line, the Orange and Blue need more than just a victory at TQL Stadium; they need a dominant performance to keep their quarterfinal hopes alive.
The path to the knockout round is a daunting one. Entering the final day of Phase One, FC Cincinnati sits with four points, earned from a 3-2 regulation win against CF Monterrey and a 2-2 draw with FC Juárez that ended in a penalty shootout loss. According to the tournament’s advancement rules, only the top four teams from the MLS table will move on. To have a chance, Cincinnati must secure a regulation win against Chivas, which would bring their total to seven points. A win via shootout would only grant them two points, which would not be enough to advance.
Even with a three-point victory, advancement is not guaranteed. The deciding factor will likely be goal differential. As detailed by local reports, FC Cincinnati enters the match with a +1 goal differential. They are chasing teams like the Portland Timbers (+5) and Orlando City SC (+6). This means Cincinnati likely needs to defeat Chivas by at least four goals to tie Portland’s differential, at which point they could advance on the next tiebreaker: total goals scored. A five-goal margin of victory would be needed to catch Orlando. The task is tall, especially considering Cincinnati has won by more than two goals only four times in 31 matches across all competitions this year.
“For me, it’s, can we win? And that simplifies what it looks like at the end,” FC Cincinnati Head Coach Pat Noonan said ahead of the match. “Of course, goal differential in this format is going to come into play… it’s certainly a factor, but in some ways you can control it, in some ways you can’t.”
Standing in their way is a Chivas Guadalajara side that has already been eliminated from quarterfinal contention, having secured just two points from their first two matches. However, this doesn’t mean they’ll be an easy opponent. As one of Mexico’s most storied clubs, Chivas will be playing for pride and momentum. Head Coach Gabriel Milito has emphasized his team’s commitment to finishing strong.
“We’re going to play it very seriously,” Milito stated, according to LeaguesCup.com. “This third game should help us continue to gain momentum… our responsibility is always to represent the club in the best way possible.”
Chivas boasts talent familiar to MLS fans, including former San Jose Earthquakes forward Cade Cowell and former Sporting Kansas City striker Alan Pulido. They will look to play the role of spoiler in a stadium where they have previously fallen short. This will be the third meeting between the clubs in Cincinnati, with FC Cincinnati winning the previous two encounters 3-1, including a memorable weather-delayed match in the 2023 Leagues Cup.
Despite the pressure, the home side remains confident. “We feel good. I think we’re going to go into the game in a strong way to try to win the game,” midfielder Brian Anunga told MLSSoccer.com. “We’re at home, so we always want to win and give everything.”
Cincinnati will rely on the stellar form of midfielder Evander, who has been a tournament standout with two goals and two assists. His performance will be critical if the team is to produce the high-scoring victory they need. As the final whistle approaches on Thursday night, all eyes will be on the scoreboard to see if FC Cincinnati can pull off the improbable and book their ticket to the quarterfinals.
