As the United States heads into the late summer of 2025, public health officials are monitoring a new rise in COVID-19 infections, a trend complicated by forthcoming changes in national vaccination policy. Data from various metrics, including wastewater surveillance, test positivity rates, and emergency room visits, indicate a growing wave of the virus, particularly in the South and Midwest.
According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), COVID-19 cases are increasing or likely increasing in 26 states. While the rate of increase is currently slower than in previous surges, experts caution that it is too early to predict the wave’s ultimate size and severity. “Each year has been different, so in some ways, this is more of the same,” said Sam Scarpino, a professor of health sciences at Northeastern University, in a statement to The Guardian. He added that with immune-evading variants circulating, “we can be pretty confident that there’s some kind of wave coming.”
This resurgence coincides with planned restrictions on vaccine boosters by the Trump administration. Independent advisors to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) have recommended that manufacturers update booster shots for the fall to target more recent variants. However, officials have indicated these new boosters may be limited to older adults and individuals with specific health conditions. This marks a shift from previous strategies that recommended boosters for all adults. Furthermore, recommendations for children have been softened, and the suggestion for pregnant people has been removed, despite clear evidence of the vaccine’s benefits in reducing severe illness and death.
Health experts have expressed concern over these policy changes. Andrew Pekosz, a virologist at Johns Hopkins University, emphasized the importance of broad vaccination. “If you vaccinate broadly, you can reduce the spread of Covid-19 in the population,” he told The Guardian. “The benefit, to me, is very clearly on the side of getting vaccinated.”
Vaccines work by training the body’s immune system to recognize and fight off pathogens without causing the disease itself, a principle that has saved millions of lives globally, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Widespread vaccination creates community immunity, also known as herd immunity, which protects vulnerable individuals who cannot be vaccinated, such as newborns or the immunocompromised. However, vaccination rates in the U.S. remain a concern. As of April 2025, only 23% of adults had received an updated COVID-19 booster. For children, the numbers are even lower, with the CDC reporting that about 15% of children aged 5-17 and just 5.6% of those aged six months to four years are vaccinated.
The virus continues to pose a significant threat. An estimated 35,000 to 54,000 people in the U.S. have died from COVID-19 since October 2024. The virus also has long-term consequences, with an estimated 5.3% of all U.S. adults reporting symptoms of long COVID as of last September. “It’s not so much that the virus has become less dangerous, it’s that we have immunity, so we fight off the virus more efficiently than we did early in the pandemic,” Pekosz explained. Without regular boosters, this immunity wanes, leaving people more susceptible to severe outcomes.
In addition to vaccines, antiviral treatments like Paxlovid remain highly effective against current variants. However, a program that makes the treatment more affordable is scheduled to end in December, potentially creating access barriers for some patients. As the nation navigates this new phase of the pandemic, health experts continue to advocate for a science-driven approach that includes vaccination, masking in high-risk situations, and staying home when sick to mitigate the spread and impact of the virus.
