The Atlantic hurricane season has intensified with the formation of Tropical Storm Dexter late Sunday, the fourth named storm of the 2025 season. While Dexter is forecast to remain over open waters and poses no threat to land, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is actively monitoring two other disturbances, signaling the start of the season’s traditionally most active period.
As of 5 a.m. AST on Monday, August 4, the National Hurricane Center placed Tropical Storm Dexter approximately 255 miles northwest of Bermuda. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and was moving east-northeast at 12 mph. Forecasters anticipate some slight strengthening over the next couple of days before Dexter transitions into a post-tropical cyclone by Wednesday, continuing its path away from the United States and deeper into the North Atlantic.
While Dexter is not a concern for coastal residents, meteorologists are urging vigilance as two other systems show potential for development. The first is an area of low pressure expected to form midweek off the southeastern U.S. coast, near Florida, Georgia, or the Carolinas. The NHC has given this system a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression within the next seven days. Its projected slow drift to the west or northwest could bring increased rainfall to the Southeast coast, including the Tampa Bay area, later this week.
The second, and more promising, disturbance is a tropical wave emerging from the west coast of Africa. This system has a 50% chance of formation over the next seven days as it tracks west-northwestward across the central Atlantic. According to weather experts, it is still thousands of miles from land, allowing ample time for monitoring. Should this system or the one near the U.S. coast strengthen into a named storm, it will be called Erin.
The recent uptick in activity marks a significant shift from the relative quiet of June and July. The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, historically enters its peak from mid-August through mid-October, with the statistical peak occurring around September 10. This period is characterized by favorable conditions for storm formation, including warmer ocean waters, reduced Saharan dust, and lower wind shear.
This year’s activity aligns with predictions for an active season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecast a slightly above-average season, predicting 13 to 19 named storms. Of those, six to 10 are expected to become hurricanes, with three to five potentially strengthening into major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
As Fox Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross noted, the overall weather pattern is expected to become more conducive to tropical development around the middle of August. The formation of Dexter and the monitoring of two additional systems serve as a critical reminder for coastal communities to review their hurricane preparedness plans. Even storms that do not make landfall can create dangerous high surf and rip currents along the coast. Officials advise residents to stay informed through official channels and ensure their emergency kits are stocked for the peak of the season.
